Tuesday, 17 November 2009

Here's the text of an email I just sent to Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) on seeing him quoted as saying he is "cynical" about global warming science (I'm sure he meant to say "skeptical"...)

On his Senate website he posted concerns about Kerry-Boxer (full text available
here ) that ss. 705 and 707 would empower the President to direct the Federal government to use all existing powers to try to cut U.S. GHG emissions if global CO2-eq concentration reaches 450ppm. He claims this 'trigger' would go off "within months" of enactment. That didn't sound right to me, so I dug around a bit for forecasts. Here's what I came up with:

Dear Sen. Vitter,

On your website you state that the 450 ppm CO2-eq "trigger" would be reached "within months" of enactment. I don't agree. Current CO2-eq is 400 ppm, rising around 2.5 ppm / year. In projections that factor in emission reductions that countries have already committed to, the world should not reach 450ppm CO2-eq before 2037. Even projecting Business As Usual (ignoring all existing reduction commitments, as if everyone quit trying entirely) the world would not reach 450ppm CO2-eq until 2032. So while the trigger could indeed come into effect in some *decades*, I think "within months" greatly overstates the matter.
Data source (very detailed projections for several possible policy outcomes):

Yours Truly,
Jim Prall
U.S. citizen


James Annan said...

Hmmm. Not quite right, because CO2-eq is generally reckoned to be about 430ppm (I haven't checked the sum myself). However, that still leaves the best part of a decade...

Jason said...

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If you would like to, please leave a comment under my "Compadres" page stating that you've added my link and I'll return the favor.


Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Unknown said...

BTW the removed post was not climate denial/skepticism - it was just some spam robot.